投資要點/Investment Thesis

事件：美圖公司發佈業績盈利預喜公告，預計2023年12月31日止年度根據非國際財務報告準則錄得約人民幣3.30~3.70億元歸母經調整淨利潤，同比2022年12月31日止年度約人民幣1.11億元增長約200%至230%。

Preliminary 2023E results: 200% growth in non-IFRS adjusted net profit

Meitu announced preliminary accounting data for 2023E, indicating earnings growth, and guides RMB330m-370m in adjusted net profit in non-IFRS terms, representing a 200-230% increase from about RMB111m in 2022. It attributes the following growth catalysts: 

•Productive imaging solutions: demand grew unexpectedly as user payment penetration deepened; and

•Ex-mainland subscriber growth: the markets outside of China grew steadily as the company’s globalization strategy took off. 

23年業績增長核心貢獻主要系：1）生產力相關影像產品需求的超預期增長提升用戶付費滲透率；2）全球化策略下中國內地以外訂閱用戶的穩步增長。此外我們前期也多次強調美圖公司在商業模式成功切換、創始人重新出任董事長後，策略層面全面聚焦主業已兌現強勁的主業收入增長，同時公司在C端的競爭格局優勢或被低估，依託於長期積累的經驗和用戶有望在AI時代工具軟件加速整合和革新的過程中重新搶佔原有專業工具軟件市場。

Other catalysts:

•Core business refocus: with the return of Meitu’s founder as chairman, the change in business model has been a key driver. As we have highlighted in previous reports, the strategic comprehensive refocus on core business strength has led to strong core revenue growth. 

•Consumer edge empowers pro segment: we believe Meitu’s competitive edge in the B2C business is underrated. With its long experience, it has amassed a rich pool of users, which we expect will help recapture its positioning in the professional segment as it integrates AI tool software and innovations.

公司業績雙擎驅動，AI加持下有望持續提升經營槓桿：展望 24-25 年我們認爲自上而下設定的AIGC策略和聚焦主業工具軟件的策略轉向有望爲美圖公司帶來收入和利潤的持續增長，在短期產品定價策略優化和全球化策略+AIGC新產品的推動下，公司的訂閱業務經營槓桿有望發力，帶動公司24-25年業績持續超預期。

AI augments twin business engines; we expect operating leverage will improve

Ahead in 2024-25E, we expect Meitu’s top-down AIGC strategy, on top of its strategic core refocus to tool software, will sustain revenue and profit growth. The refinement of short-term product pricing and globalization strategies, along with its new AIGC products, would increase operating leverage in the subscription business and could continue to drive outperformance vs expectations in 2024-25E.

我們認爲生成式 AI圖像賽道的最大機會可能來自於1）素材庫（圖像、字體、AI模型）和2）輕量化工具軟件帶來的工作流升級。素材庫方面公司聯手國內最大設計師平臺站酷，重視設計師資產在生成式AI時代的價值提升；工作流方面圍繞美圖設計室爲核心，通過生成式AI加速B端工具軟件的輕量化和技術平權，基於此我們認爲其模型升級的方向將持續向輕量化的專業工具軟件靠齊，並逐步在基礎設計功能方面有望逐步取代一部分傳統專業設計工具和輕量化工具軟件的交叉覆蓋市場。

We believe these are the biggest opportunities in the generative AI imaging tool business: 

• Materials library: images, fonts, AI models

• Workflow upgrades: lean and mean tool software.

Materials library: Meitu joined forces with ZCool, China’s largest designer platform, to add value to its designer assets with generative AI. Workflow is driven from the hub of Meitu Design Studio, while generative AI incorporates lean B2B tool software with advanced tech. Hence, we expect future model upgrades will feature lean professional tool software and we expect they will gradually replace some of the basic design functions currently used in the cross-coverage market for traditional professional design tools and lean software tools.

大模型對於美圖的顛覆邏輯難以迅速證實：在任意細分領域持續優化的前提除了模型能力跨代式超越外，細分行業的數據依然十分重要，尤其是在美顏這個顆粒度極高的細分子行業，因此即使美顏賽道進入AI時代後出現全新的交互模式，美圖公司卡位依然具備相對優勢。因此與主營業務大部分To B的工具軟件企業略有不同，我們認爲美圖在生成式AI上的卡位更近似於Canva，即或主要受益於社交媒體營銷崛起和創作者經濟。在生成式AI時代到來後，我們認爲公司受益於長期深耕圖像顏值賽道總結出的產品方法論和數據沉澱，同時具備合規且生成式能力持續迭代的AI大模型，因此公司在細分賽道具備相對競爭優勢。

Changing model for the AI market: Meitu has the best vantage in beauty imaging

Well positioned for AI: we reckon the ongoing process of segmental market optimization presupposes that model capabilities undergo a cross-generational transcendence. Data is crucial, especially in a tightly niche industry such as image beautification software. Hence, even if new AI interactive models emerge in this market, we believe Meitu already commands the competitive vantage. 

Mature methodology and rich data: unlike other tool software providers that predominantly ply the B2B market, Meitu’s positioning in generative AI is more similar to that of Canva and would mainly benefit with the rise of social media marketing and a creator economy. As generative AI gains traction, we believe Meitu will leverage its product methodology and rich data amassed from its long experience in imaging beautification. Its AI model is compliant with regulations and has generative capabilities that can be iterated, giving the company a competitive advantage in this segment.

投資建議/Investment Ideas